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Transactional Analysis: Matthew Stafford Trade

February 20, 2021 | by Lucas Chan | Comments Comments Off on Transactional Analysis: Matthew Stafford Trade
Matthew Stafford has been dealt by the Detroit Lions.
Matthew Stafford will try to take the Rams over the top. (Detroit Lions)

The presumed offseason quarterback carousel started off with a bang when the L.A. Rams dealt Jared Goff, first-round picks in 2022 and 2023 and a third-rounder in 2021 to the Detroit Lions in exchange for QB Matthew Stafford.

From a pure risk-analysis perspective, L.A. has effectively mortgaged its future to buy Stafford in an attempt to “win now.” For the next two years, the Rams will not have a first-round pick nor will they have healthy cap room. As it stands, L.A. is $26 million over the cap with $8.6 million in dead money from cutting RB Todd Gurley last year, and that’s before calculating Goff’s dead money ($22 million). Moreover, because of Covid-19, the base cap space is likely to be reduced next season, which will narrow the Rams’ championship window further.

There’s a belief in the NFL that if you don’t have a Peyton Manning or Tom Brady, the path to winning a Super Bowl lies in a rookie or an aging vet. Los Angeles has taken this to heart by acquiring Stafford. The 33-year-old will have a chance to prove his mettle by leveraging a capable offensive line, unique receiving corps and signal calling HC Sean McVay. To the Rams’ organization, Stafford’s contract is incredibly attractive: cap hits of $20 million and $23 million in 2021 and 2022, respectively, with no dead cap.

Many analysts will argue that with this trade, the Lions have hit the reset button, and that isn’t far from being true. Despite hiring a new HC in Dan Campbell and a new general manager in Brad Holmes, the organization will need to make tough decisions regarding the bloated roster Matt Patricia and Bob Quinn created. The influx of draft picks helps, but the lack of cap room and the additional dead money ($17.8 million) from Goff will weigh on the speed of the organization’s recovery. Additionally, Detroit’s scouting team is flaccid, so there’s no guarantee that the Lions will use their picks wisely.

Fantasy Impact

Let’s explore the Fantasy ramifications this trade will have on each team.

Los Angeles Rams

The intensity of the spotlight is now on Stafford after years of being shielded from criticism. We are not convinced he is the immediate upgrade that most think he is. Over the course of his career, Stafford has completed 62.6 per cent of his passes for 7.2 yards per attempt, 4.5 per cent touchdown rate and 2.3 per cent interception rate. For reference, Goff has completed 63.4 per cent of his passes for 7.5 yards per attempt with 4.4 per cent touchdown rate and 2.3 interception rate. Yes, the Rams are a better managed organization and more capable of extracting talent than the Lions, but we remain skeptical of Stafford’s upside.

The three-headed backfield of Cam Akers, Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown should all theoretically benefit from defenses lightening the box in order to stop Stafford from throwing the ball. Additionally, Los Angeles ranked seventh in adjusted line yards and is likely to return most, if not all, of its offensive line players from 2020, which also helps the running game.

McVay’s offense has gone through a serious overhaul since Gurley’s MVP days. From deploying 11 personnel 89 per cent of the time in 2017, McVay has since made it easier for Goff by forcing short YAC-induced throws towards the middle of the field rather than the perimeter. Whether this trend will continue remains a mystery as Stafford has proven he is more efficient in a Run and Shoot/Spread offense than in West Coast/Heavy Run. We expect Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods to produce at slightly higher levels, but we’re keeping a serious eye on Van Jefferson as the perennial vertical threat. Jefferson led the Rams pass catchers with an ADoT of 11.2 yards, three yards higher than the next player.

Detroit Lions

Faced with an immediate downgrade, the Detroit Lions will have to live through two years of being a bottom-barrel team with a place-holder quarterback. Although we alluded to Stafford not being the huge upgrade everyone expects him to be, Goff will be exposed as the inexperienced quarterback he is. With virtually no supporting cast and a young front office, Goff is poised to be the organization’s sacrificial lamb — unless, of course, he can somehow become as mobile as he is in the virtual world (see video below).

The hiring of former Charger HC Anthony Lynn as offensive coordinator indicates a return to a run-heavy scheme for the Lions. D’Andre Swift and Adrian Peterson are the presumed starters for now, however, the addition of Goff actually hurts the backfield’s efficiency. If the NFL understands who Goff is by now (and it does), it will load the box to stop him and the backfield from running while daring him to throw to his outside receivers in Cover one. With seemingly negative game-script for every game, it is hard to value anyone but Swift.

We argue that all Lions’ receivers should be downgraded except for T.J. Hockenson. We don’t expect Goff to be able to throw deep behind his new anemic offensive line, so both the X and Y receivers (Marvin Jones, ADoT of 13.1; and Kenny Golladay, ADoT of 15) will suffer with Goff under centre. The one saving grace is positive game-script.

RotoRob Tune of the Day

English rock band The Rolling Stones formed in 1962, and in becoming one of the all-time greats, are still at it today. In 1976, they released Black and Blue, their 15th American album, which included a cover of Eric Donaldson‘s “Cherry Oh Baby,” a tune that would be featured prominently live.

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Super Bowl LV: Legends Never Die

January 30, 2021 | by Lucas Chan | Comments Comments Off on Super Bowl LV: Legends Never Die
Winning three playoff games on the road is no easy feat, but it seems like old hat for Brady, who only did it four times with the Patriots before repeating the trick this season with the Bucs. Now, strangely, Tampa Bay will get home field advantage in the Super Bowl, but Brady is showing no weakness after overcoming the Saints and Packers — albeit with three interceptions courtesy of Green Bay’s defense.
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Studs and Duds: Conference Championship Weekend Edition

January 20, 2021 | by Lucas Chan | Comments Comments Off on Studs and Duds: Conference Championship Weekend Edition
Alright, fine… we’re done betting against Brady. Especially this weekend, as he gets a soft draw against a pass defense ranked 15th in DVOA. Moreover, Green Bay has been downright inept at pressuring passers, managing an anemic rate of 14.2 per cent in 2020. If the Packers choose to routinely just send four rushers, the old man will pick the defense apart like he did to New Orleans. While we do expect Arians to lean more on the run game due to the weather in Green Bay, don’’t be surprised if Brady plays out of his mind in the cold weather (he’s plenty used to it).
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Studs and Duds: Divisional Round Edition

January 12, 2021 | by Lucas Chan | Comments Comments Off on Studs and Duds: Divisional Round Edition
Allen and the city of Buffalo will thrive where Tennessee failed. The Bills’ organization absolutely trusts him to put on his cape and win games. We expect dominance from Allen both in the air and on the ground against an overrated defense ranked 10th and 12th, respectively, in pass and rush defense DVOA.
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Studs and Duds: Wild Card Weekend Edition

January 5, 2021 | by Lucas Chan | Comments Comments Off on Studs and Duds: Wild Card Weekend Edition
As we’ll allude to below, Tampa Bay’s slaughter of awful teams late in the season will be its undoing. In securing the NFC East title, Washington’s mediocre but battle tested team sports a pass defense ranked second in DVOA. Ranking 12th in pressures, Washington differs from a lot of teams by being able to convert that pressure into tackles for loss, sacks and turnovers.
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