2002 MLB Draft Recap: Part V
After starring at Rutgers, Bobby Brownlie’s pro career stalled. (Frank H. Conlon/The Star-Ledger)
It’s been way too long since we last did a deep dive on former MLB drafts. And while we wait to see if the 2022 season will begin on time, let’s go back a couple of decades to continue with Part Five of our retrospective of the 2002 MLB Draft.
Previous parts:
Part I
Part II
Part III
Part IV
Today, we look at five more picks from the first round, including a starter who turned out to be one the steals of the draft, two hurlers who had long careers as innings eaters, one outfielder who exploded onto the scene but never duplicated that success, and another starter who failed to even reach the majors.
Without further ado, a closer examination of picks 21-25 from the 2002 MLB Draft.
21. Bobby Brownlie, RHP, Chicago Cubs
The Skinny
Brownlie was originally drafted as a high schooler in 1999 by Colorado in the 26th round (790th overall), but opted to attend Rutgers University. It was a move that paid off handsomely as he parlayed a strong college career (he stills holds the school record of career strikeouts with 235) into a first round selection by the Cubs and a $2.5 million signing bonus. Brownlie’s pro career started well as he made it Double-A and was a Southern League All-Star in just his second season. Unfortunately, he never recovered his velocity after a shoulder woe in 2003 (after originally dealing with shoulder soreness as a junior in college), and after four progressively worse seasons in the Cubs organization, he was released the near end of Spring Training in 2007. Over the next three seasons, he bounced between Independent ball and the Double-A (see video below of him with the Nats’ Double-A squad in 2008) and Triple-A clubs of three different MLB teams, never making it to the big league level before retiring in 2010. After hanging ’em up, Brownlie remained involved in baseball, spending one season as the assistant pitching coach at Rutgers. Since 2011, he’s been a player agent with the Boras Corporation.
Strengths
As a college pitcher and even into his early professional years, it was all about control and command.
Weaknesses
Brownlie simply wasn’t a big strikeout pitcher, only averaging 6.8 K/9 as a professional.
Final Analysis
Brownlie was a promising prospect at Rutgers, ultimately earning induction into the school’s Athletics Hall of Fame in 2013. But after his shoulder problems, the 96 mph heater he had in college was gone and he pitched in the 91-93 mph range as a pro. Saddled with reduced velocity and the lack of a dependable third pitch he could command, he really had to reinvent himself — despite an outstanding curve. Brownlie never really managed to adjust to the higher levels; after being a solid A+ pitcher, he was mediocre at Double-A (3.97) and awful at Triple-A, where he spent most of his time as a reliever. He even had a pair of stints in Indy ball (2007 and 2009) before packing it in. Years later, Brownlie expressed disappointment that he never made it to the bigs, and clearly, was ultimately a failure as a pick. In a nutshell, he shouldn’t have been a first rounder.
22. Jeremy Guthrie, RHP, Cleveland Indians
The Skinny
Another college righty, Guthrie was actually drafted three times — first out of high school by the Mets in the 15th round in 1997 (when he opted to attend university), then by the Pirates in the 2001 third round out of Stanford (opting to return for his season senior during which he was the ace of the staff), and finally by the Indians here in this slot, when he did sign for a cool $3 million. Coming out of college, he had four potential above average pitches (fastball, curve, slider and changeup) with very strong command. He bounced around during his 13-year MLB career, pitching for eight teams before heading to Mexico where he ended his career. Guthrie managed 91 wins, but twice led the majors in losses and once in hits allowed, while leading his league once in hit batters and once in homers allowed, so there were some dubious achievements along the way. Things never really panned out in Cleveland and he was waived in January 2007, getting claimed by the Orioles. And while Guthrie was at his best during that five-year run in Baltimore (accumulating 16.1 of his 18.7 career WAR), and decent for four years in KC (coming within four outs of a no-hitter in August 2012 — when he was perhaps the best pitcher for the Royals — and last showing some Fantasy value in 2014), he was pretty rancid in his other stops.
Strengths
Guthrie was a real innings eater (five times topping 200 frames) who always seemed to outpitch his peripherals (his career ERA was over a third of a run lower than his FIP). He had good control (2.6 BB/9), limited line drives (just over 20 per cent) and somewhat limited damage on fly balls.
Weaknesses
He was never much of a strikeout pitcher, thereby limiting his value to mostly 4×4 formats. Guthrie also surrendered a lot of contact through his career.
Final Analysis
According to Baseball Reference, Guthrie’s closest comparison is Frank Castillo, so that doesn’t suggest he was highly successful. Guthrie was a mediocre pitcher at best, and while he never provided the Indians a return on their investment, the fact is he was a good pick because he turned into a major innings eater. Between 2007 and 2014, just five other MLB pitchers managed to throw at least 175 frames in every season: Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez, Cole Hamels, Mark Buehlre and James Shields. For this reason, we suggest that Guthrie was solid pick at No. 22, and really could have gone in the top 20 and still been considered a success.
23. Jeff Francoeur, OF, Atlanta Braves
The Skinny
Francoeur seemed like the ideal pick for the Braves, a two-sport, hyped local high school product with five tool potential who they penned for $2.2 million. There were concerns about his ability to control the strike zone thanks to an overaggressive approach, but it wasn’t really exposed until he reached Double-A. Still, Francoeur quickly adjusted the following season and, when brought up to the bigs, he killed it in the second half of 2005, winding up third in the ROY race. A Sports Illustrated cover story called him “The Natural.” The power and production were there early on, but Francoeur’s OBP remained an issue. It was easy to ignore his awful BB-K ratio while he was mashing dingers, but shortly after his power waned, Atlanta sent him packing in 2009, and he spent the rest of his career bouncing around before retiring in 2017.
Strengths
Francoeur had tremendous make up, was an incredible athlete that was physically gifted, had raw power, great speed and a fantastic arm.
Weaknesses
His main issue was that he was simply too aggressive at the plate, and once this was exposed by MLB pitchers, he was never really able to adjust. Francoeur just kept trying to mash everything over the fence.
Final Analysis
In a 12-year career, Frenchy accumulated 6.8 WAR over 1,481 games while slashing .261/.303/.416. His OPS+ of 91 definitely spoke to his struggles, but he did wind up with 160 homers, 626 runs and 54 steals. Probably the only reason he managed to carve out this long a career despite such awful strike zone judgment was the ever-present promise of his natural skills taking over. Defensively, Francoeur won a Gold Glove in 2007 and five times led all right fielders in his league in assists. When “The Golden Boy” started to struggle, most notably in 2008 when his production nosedived along with his BA (he somehow hit .293 in 2007), the Braves didn’t handle it well, and it hurt his confidence, while also likely sucking some of the joy out of the game for him. His closest comparison, as per Baseball-Reference, is Jeffrey Leonard, who put up 9.9 WAR over 14 seasons. But when you consider that Francoeur’s closest comparison at age 22 was Hall of Famer Duke Snider, it’s hard not to wonder what could have been. Still, in looking at where the Braves landed Francoeur in this draft, this pick was pretty much bang on.
24. Joe Blanton, RHP, Oakland Athletics
The Skinny
The A’s received this pick as compensation for the Yankees signing Jason Giambi, and while University of Kentucky product Blanton was a mostly durable starter for the first eight years of his career, injuries ultimately forced him to shift to the bullpen, where he really excelled over his final few seasons. Oakland managed to originally sign Blanton for just $1.2 million, and he spent six years in the organization before being dealt to Philadelphia, where he was part of the 2008 World Series championship squad. He later pitched for the Dodgers, Angels, the A’s (again), the Royals, the Pirates, the Dodgers (again) and finally the Nationals. The chunky hurler had issues with his mechanics and command, but straightened that out as a pro, becoming a top pitching prospect in the minors.
Strengths
Blanton was very durable early on in his career, and had a very good fastball coming out of college. His curveball got better once he turned pro (winding up being comparable to Barry Zito‘s), and he also improved his changeup and slider over time. Blanton offered a confident demeanour on the mound, and he always got good movement on his pitches. He was also fairly good at restricting long balls thanks to spotting his offerings in the lower part of the strike zone. Blanton showed strong command in the latter half of his career and was generally able to get deeper into his starts thanks to a low P/PA.
Weaknesses
In college, he often dealt with mechanical issues, and even after he turned pro, his delivery wasn’t exactly clean. Take a look at his pic and you’ll quickly determine that his body doesn’t screen “athletic,” as his weight became an issue at times. Blanton periodically relied on just one or two offerings, not employing enough of his full repertoire.
Final Analysis
Over his 13-year career, Blanton accumulated a WAR of 11.9 and won 101 games, while fanning 1,284 batters in 1,737 2/3 innings. The 2004 Futures Game participant finished sixth in AL ROY voting in 2005 and two years later led the league in both starts and hits allowed. Baseball-Reference lists Joel Pineiro as the most comparable pitcher to Blanton. By the age of 27, Blanton was on a similar career trajectory as that of Todd Stottlemyre, but he never did achieve those heights thanks to below average performances from 2010 to 2013. By 2014, Blanton retired, but he came back in 2015 and massively resuscitated his career by shifting to the bullpen. By making tweaks to both his arm angle and repertoire, he turned into a very effective reliever for a couple of seasons. Overall, Blanton did pitch better than his bottom line results would suggest (4.38 career ERA vs. 4.10 xFIP). In 2017, injuries and ineffectiveness reared their ugly head again, and he packed it in for good after the season. Still, all things considered, he went exactly where he should have in this draft.
25. Matt Cain, RHP, San Francisco Giants
The Skinny
A Tennessee high school product, Cain signed with the Giants for $1.375 million, and spent his entire career with the organization, retiring after the 2017 season. By 2004, he had established himself as one of the game’s best pitching prospects, making his MLB debut late in 2005.
Strengths
Cain had a large frame and was gifted with top notch stuff, including a fastball that kept gaining in velocity early in his career (reaching 96 mph at times), a great curve, a very tough to hit slider and a changeup that improved over time. He had the smarts and drive to succeed and brought a confidence to the mound. Over time, Cain’s command became superb.
Weaknesses
He struggled with wildness in the high minors and early in his MLB career, but managed to mostly keep this in check as he matured, and his command improved. Concerns over Cain’s elbow in the minors proved needless, as he morphed into a durable hurler for many years before his body betrayed him later.
Final Analysis
The Giants really scored here, as Cain was probably the third most valuable player in this draft, and a true No. 1 starter — especially between 2009 and 2012 when he racked up 15.1 WAR, proved very durable, and even enjoyed a perfect game in the final season of this superb run. All told, the three-time All-Star racked up 29.1 WAR in working 2,085 2/3 innings over 331 starts during his 13-year career, winning 104 games and compiling a 3.68 ERA with 1,694 punchouts and 711 free passes. Cain went from a pitcher that led the league in wild pitches in 2007 to one that led the league in starts the following year and then complete games a season later. Twice he finished in the top 10 in Cy Young voting. As part of two World Series winners, Cain proved a postseason beast, pitching to a 2.01 ERA over 51 career frames. Unfortunately, a litany of health woes limited him to a combined 26 starts between 2014 and 2015, and he was no longer the same pitcher after that. Cain’s career most closely matched Anibal Sanchez, but Cain’s most similar comparison at the ages of 25, 26 and 28 was Hall of Famer John Smoltz. Unfortunately, Cain went into free fall mode after that as the flyball pitcher started having a bigger issue with home runs allowed. Still, he managed to earn himself a spot on the Giants’ Wall of Fame.
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