Dear RotoRob: Will AK-47 Steal Boozer’s Touches?
This is it — the long-awaited 300th post to RotoRob.com. We’ve been at the game for just over six months now, so we’re cranking it out, baby.’
Andy has suggested juice and cookies to celebrate the milestone, but we had logistical issues there. So what better way to honour our milestone by giving back to our readers with another incarnation of Dear RotoRob? The mailbag is piling up, so let’s dip in and see what’s in store today.
First off, Zak is back. If you recall last week, he was weighing a deal that involved giving up Carlos Boozer, Lamar Odom and T.J. Ford for Jermaine O’Neal, Kobe Bryant and Josh Howard.
Dear RotoRob,
Thanks so much for that help, but I still am tempted. I mean, I would be getting two superstars. I have to believe that once Andrei Kirilenko gets going (if he ever does this season) he has to steal some of the touches and the rebounds from Boozer. But what do you think about (if I can get the other guy to go for it) Boozer, Antawn Jamison and Ford for O’Neal, Kobe and Howard?
If I could get him to do that I just like getting two guys that are the first option on their teams. I just think on any given night Jamison and Ford might not get alot of touches since both of them have better scorers ahead of them and I would think that Boozer is the number one option but with Deron Williams being so good right now and Kirilenko causing so many mismatches that Boozer isn’t always the number one option every night.
I don’t think I need help really anywhere, I am in last place in turnovers but I’m not really worried about that. And in FG percentage I could use help, but a lot of my guys are just not shooting well. So here is my roster (we are in a six-team league, but with 26 players per team):
PG – Ford, Brevin Knight, Raymond Felton, Jamaal Tinsley, Jarret Jack, Mike James(who I almost have given up on; I think I should drop him for Quentin Richardson. What do you think?), Mo Williams, Baron Davis, Andre Miller
SG- Kevin Martin, Josh Smith, Wally Szczerbiak, Paul Pierce, Felton, Gerald Wallace, Mike Miller
SF- Smith, Szczerbiak, Pierce, Wallace, Miller, Rashard Lewis, Odom, Jamison
PF- Andrew Bogut, Jamison, Odom, Wallace, Darko Milicic, Mehmet Okur, Boozer, Andris Biedrins, Chris Wilcox, Dirk Nowitzki, Chris Bosh
C- Bogut, Milicic, Okur, Boozer, Biedrins, Wilcox and Bosh
Zak
Hey Zak,
I like that second option for you better, because Odom is just such a stud. Of course, after Kobe went nuts last night, it might not be so easy anymore.”””’
I have James as well. I haven’t given up on him, but I did grab Randy Foye on waivers just in case.
Remember that Ford, despite the fact he’s hoisting more shots this year, is generally a pass-first PG.
***
Next up, Seth is thinking of giving up on Jeff Foster and Danny Granger and wants to know if he’s ejecting them prematurely (uh, perhaps you should see a doctor about that?).
Dear RotoRob,
Got another couple of questions for you. I have both Jeff Foster and Danny Granger on my team but I am thinking about grabbing Andrea Bargnani and/or Chris Kaman. I have two questions primarily: Is it time to give up on Granger? Will Foster get enough run to put up those nice double-doubles?Thanks again.
Seth
Hi Seth,”””’
The Pacers are desperate for rebounding, so Foster is the man for now. But I’m not sure I’d be ready to give up on Granger. I mean, the dude had 21 off the bench on Tuesday, so he can still be hugely productive as their sixth man. And he’s far more versatile than Foster, so his minutes off the bench won’t dip as much as Foster’s would (if he is not starting).
Bargnani is playing well right now. The development curve is still going to be a long one, but you can see him growing every game (and I should know, as I watch every Raptor game). It wouldn’t shock me if he’s starting by the end of the season, but either way, you can expect 25 to 30 MPG going forward. As for Kaman, he was so amazing last year, but this year’s been a struggle with the injuries and inconsistent PT. He’s been on the bench more whenever the Clippers want to run (and more and more teams match up that way these days), so I don’t know. You might be better standing pat for a while and wait it out.
***
Regular reader Ace is looking at a couple of trade options.
Dear RotoRob,
I am working on couple of other trades right now. I am trading Tony Parker for Pau Gasol, and Josh Smith for Andrei Kirlinko. What do you think of it?
Here is my current roster:
PG Steve Nash, Allen Iverson, Deron Williams, Parker
SG J. Smith
SF Carmelo Anthony, Jason Richardson
PF Elton Brand, Rasheed Wallace, David West
C Amare Stoudamire, Jorge GarbajosaI will pick up Raja Bell this weekend, and trade Parker for Gasol, then drop Garbajosa for Alonzo Mourning for his blocks. Any suggestions?
Thanks,
Ace
Hey Ace,”””’
The Parker for Gasol deal is risky but I love the upside possibilities.
Parker is engaged to Eva now, so he’s soon going to be a desperate househusband. Whether that affects his value, only time will tell.
He has stepped up this year and if you can afford the hit in assists (looks like you can with your lineup) then what Gasol will add in blocks and rebounding will be huge. You’ll hurt a bit in FT percentage and somewhat in steals with this deal, but you should do it, especially if the reports on Gasol’s injury progress are promising.
Josh Smith for AK-47:
Hmmm..tough one. Their chief strengths are blocks, and AK-47 is the man there, but Smith is killing your FG percentage. I’m going to have to say you should pass on this deal, because I still believe Smith will mature more and figure it out. Once he starts putting the ball on the floor instead of hoisting ill-advised 3s, he is going to take off and improve his FG percentage in the process.
As for the rest of your team, you might want to address the J-Rich situation because that’s potentially devastating.
***
Up next, Jeff needed some baseball advice.
Dear RotoRob,
I enjoy your column. I have a question for you. This is my roster.
Running Horns Lineup with player salaries
Hernandez, Ramon C BAL $10
Posada, Jorge C NYY $10
Iguchi, Tadahito 2B CHW $12
Cabrera, Orlando SS ANA $13
Cano, Robinson 2B NYY $11
Baldelli, Rocco CF TB $12
Bedard, Erik SP BAL $5
Haren, Dan SP OAK $12
Lackey, John SP ANA $7
Otsuka, Akinori RP TEX $11
Rogers, Kenny SP DET $6
Young, Delmon OF TB $5
Gordon, Alex 3B KC $5
Markakis, Nick OF BAL $5
Contreras, Jose A. SP CHW $2
Verlander, Justin SP DET $11
Wang, Chien-Ming SP NYY $4It’s a 5 x 5 AL-only league and I can only keep 13, but I have 17 keepers. Who would you deal to try and consolidate to 13 ? I can possible go and get Howie Kendrick at $5 and/or Justin Morneau at $19. Would that be worth it ? I know my catchers are at good prices along with Iguchi and Cabrera, but they are probably the least savings and easiest to get back close to those prices, correct ?
Jeff
Hi Jeff,”””’
Thanks for the support.
Salary leagues are not my expertise to be honest, but I will tell you who I think you should look to move.
Ramon Hernandez was horrible in the second half (a better September saved him from being really crappy). He’s one to move. There’s always teams desperate for catching and he’ll get good value in return.
You don’t need two big 2B either, so I’d shop Iguchi.
Rogers and Contreras are the two pitchers I’d look to move. Rogers, especially, will be hot property now so that you can parlay into something above value.
If you’re planning on going for it this year (and your team looks strong enough to do so), package Gordon and one of those four to a young, rebuilding team who has a top five third baseman. I see you’re from Kansas, so if this is a local league, Gordon will be even more valuable.
Kendrick is a good buy at that rate, but you don’t need him with Cano already on board. If you can acquire him and flip him, that might work. Morneau at $19 is a good value. He was just sick last year, and probably can’t repeat, but certainly he’ll be worth at least $19.
Anyways, overall you have a strong looking team with a good mix of vets and kids. Gordon, Young and Markakis are three amazing building blocks.
***
Percy wanted to get feedback on some recent basketball moves he’s made.
Dear RotoRob,
Thanks for the answer. I passed on your site to the commishes in my league – I hope providing them with a new source of roto info doesn’t come back to bite me!
BTW, I dropped Nazr Mohammed like a bad habit and currently have Joel Przybilla starting for me. Then I heard that Nick Collison was going start at C and dropped Jamal Crawford for him. What do you think of that move? I have lots of Gs I’d use before Jamal (Chauncey Billups, Raymond Felton, Brevin Knight, Jarrett Jack, and T.J. Ford).Plus I read the question on Roy/Gay, and as an extension – what do you think of Randy Foye? I would have to give up a seventh rounder next year to keep him, and each team (12 in league) can only keep one player(round you drafted him in minus three – I took him in the 10th).
I noticed that guy was from the Philippines – I’m US-born, but my parents are Filipino. And yes, I too would wish my first contact with a Filipino was someone along the lines of Vanessa Minnillo.
Percy
Hi Percy,”””’
Thanks for the passing along the site…much appreciated!
Normally I’d be pleased having Collison over Crawford, but I’m not sure. Collison just hasn’t stepped up…his shooting is horrible for a F/C (of course, Crawford’s is pathetic). I could see Crawford moving into the starting lineup in NY once they finally give up on Starbury the Stiff.
I love Foye. I just picked him up and consider him a serious sleeper down the stretch. Unfortunately, I also own James, so the rook’s success is going to come at James’ expense.
As for giving up a pick to protect him, I have a feeling you’ll be far more certain one way or the other to make the call in about four months.
***
Todd from Dallas is back with another Albert Pujols issue. It seems that Pujols’ gripes about not winning the MVP award were taken out of context.
Dear RotoRob,
Here is what the AP sent out.
Here is the entire article as translated from Spanish to English by a blogger.
Pujols Remarks Lost in Translation?
This is exactly what I am talking about. It doesn’t take much to write an article I am learning. The Associated Press prints what will make it as a “story” out of context and the hyennas of the journalistic profession jump all over it because Pujols is surly.
Look, if all he said was what the AP article said then ya, it might be something, but this is getting ridiculous. Pujols is the greatest right handed hitter since Joe DiMaggio (sorry, Manny Ramirez, but it’s true) and he gets the “he is a horrbile malcontent” treatment that Barry Bonds got but didn’t hurt him in the MVP awards race. That is a joke to me. Bonds is a horrible person to the media and most other folks including his teammates and he has the most MVPs.
Pujols snapped at a New York media guy because he is competitive and doesn’t want to lose. The lesson here is the New York media creates the most drama.To use my dramatic words – this sickens me. He is nowhere close to being in Bonds territory as far as meanness goes, but he is treated as far worse.
What do you think after reading all this?
Todd
Hi Todd,”””’
This is very interesting, mostly by how eye-opening it is from the journalistic approach perspective. The fact is AP appears to be going out its way to shaft Pujols, not only because the slant it provided is a juicier story, but obviously someone there is not a big fan of his.
In fairness to AP, Pujols did sound a bit pouty with his comments; but they are so out of context it isn’t funny. My first reaction to reaction to reading the AP story was ‘wow, I can’t believe how selfish he sounds; nothing about winning in there.’
But of course, it was in there, AP just chose to ignore it.
***
Jeff responds to my earlier e-mail with more information about Alex Gordon:
Dear RotoRob,
Thanks for the input. FYI – I was at a luncheon with Dayton Moore. He said Gordon starts at 3B and Mark Teahan moves to LF. That is why I actually traded for Gordon recently.
Morneau played at a $35 value last year. Will he continue at that rate ? I was thinking about trading for him and not buying Mark Teixeira in our draft who will cost $35 or $36. That will save me money. And to rebuy an Iguchi or Hernandez will not cost more than $5 over what they are at now. That was my thinking.
What do you think of Orlando Cabrera? Do you think he will be in LAA all year? They have Brandon Wood and Erick Aybar. Due to his speed, Cabrera is worth over $20. That is why i am holding on to him so far… and SS is a pretty thin position in the AL.
Jeff
Hi Jeff,”””’
I had heard that Teahen would be shifting to the OF, but don’t you think you could use some of your excess players and Gordon to bag a stud at third?
I find it hard to imagine Morneau will repeat what he did. He might be close, but I doubt he repeats it considering his gains were not backed up by an increase in patience. Plus his flyball rate was abnormally high last year. He did really improve his contact rates, but my guesstimate is he drops under .290 with 25 to 30 homers next season. He won’t be able to duplicate the RBI total either.
I think the Angels will stick with Cabrera for now. Wood isn’t ready and I thought I read somewhere that Aybar was playing the outfield. But one of those two (more likely Aybar) will probably be dealt this offseason.
***
Back to basketball, where Stephen returns and wants to know if he should go for Chris Kaman or Sean May.
Dear RotoRob,
I looked at the site and it’s awesome.
Yeah, I’m pretty sure May is a temporary thing for a couple of games. Actually, I had another question: someone just dropped Kaman in our league and I was wondering if I should pick him up over May. Let me give you a look at my team to better analyze:
Yahoo, 9-category league–FG%, FT%, 3 pointer, points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, turnovers; 12 teams deep.
PG–T.J. Ford
PG–Allen Iverson
PG–Jamaal Tinsley
SG–Luol Deng
SG/SF–Dorell Wright
SF–Luke Walton
SF–LeBron James
PF–Zach Randolph
PF–May
PF/C–Chris Wilcox
C–Marcus Camby
I was thinking about dropping May for Kaman because I’m pretty sure (hoping) that Kaman returns to his last year’s self, while I’m 90 per cent sure May’s stats will last for a couple of games.
Thanks a lot.
Stephen
Hi Stephen,”””’
Cool, thanks for the site kudos.
Kaman over May seems like a slam dunk on paper, but I’m not sure about Kaman this year. He’s hurt right now for starters (has since returned somewhat surprisingly), but just hasn’t seemed himself at all and has spent a lot of time on the bench when the Clippers want to run. I like what I’m seeing out of May right now. He’s a nice help in blocks. Kaman, meanwhile, can’t get much worse. So he’s a good buy low candidate, I suppose, but I just don’t know what his deal is.
***
Ace is back again, with another question.
Dear RotoRob,
Your web site is impressive. I love it. But I really appreciated you taking time to answer my questions concerning my team.After getting Allen Iverson, I am also getting Pau Gasol for Tony Parker next week. Gasol will sit until later on this month, but I am sure he will help me more down the road. I am planning to add Raja Bell and either Chris Kaman, Alonzo Mourning or Nick Collison since he is the starting C for Seattle.
Any thoughts about picking up Kaman, Mourning or Collison?
Cheers,
Ace
””””
Hi Ace,
Thanks man! I appreciate the feedback’feel free to tell your sports loving friends about the site.
As for the centres, Kaman has the most upside, but has been perplexing to date this season. Mourning is the man in blocks, but can only log so many minutes. I really like Collison and his rebounding ability, but his situation seems very tenuous in Seattle. He could lose his value just like that.
With Kaman back now, go ahead and grab him. He’s the best bet.
***
Next up, Stephen, again, with more on Nick Collison in Seattle.
Dear RotoRob,
Seems like Chris Wilcox’s minutes are diminishing whereas Collison is going to be getting 30+ minutes a game. What do you think?
StephenTough call. I think Wilcox still has fantastic upside, but I do like Collison as well. Note that Wilcox played heavy minutes Saturday and has been scoring well the past couple of games, while Collison, in foul trouble, played less Saturday.
Collison is definitely a double-double threat, but the problem here is that coach Hill is pretty inconsistent with his dispersal of minutes, so it’s a situation that could change on a dime.
***
Finally this week, we heard from Brian who would like me to assess a recent trade he made.
Dear RotoRob,
Keep up the good work, Rob.
Hey what do you think of this trade in my eight-category roto league? I give Kevin Martin, Mehmet Okur and Andre Iguodala for Rashard Lewis, Josh Smith and T.J. Ford?
Thank you,
Brian
Thanks for the nice comments, Brian.”””’
I think you’re giving up slightly more value in that deal, but because you’re getting Lewis back, that’s huge.
You’re giving up a lot in Martin, who’s red-hot right now, and Okur, Mr. Clutch, while Iguodala is pitching in as well.
But Lewis is scoring like a madman. Smith is day-today right now with an eye injury and he’s been a bit frustrating, but I love his upside. Ford has been money’scoring and dropping dimes.
If you’re willing to assume the risk with Smith and his FG percentage, Lewis makes the deal worthwhile.
